4/20 Discussion on spread of radionuclide released from NILU

*6/1 Update: Link to Norwegian Institute for Air Research is lost, perhaps because it's old.

4/20

Vincent Patrick Moran

Can you tell me what you make of this?

If you look at Japan 2011 -04-21 3:00 UTC (12pm Japan) it looks like Tokyo gets hit pretty hard.

Thomas  If I read that right Surface Concentration Cs-137 would be at highest 3400Bq/m2 around Tokyo area. For comparison: Contaminated air moving through Germany after the Chernobyl accident was up to 80.000 Bq/m2 in South Bavaria and around 4.000Bq/m2 in North Germany. The total additional lifetime exposure because of the accident is at average 0.8mSv (North Germany), max. 2.5 mSv (S Bavaria).

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Try it from here: http://transport.nilu.no/products/fukushima and push the blue arrow. What's your opinion Frank?

Frank Sanns  Yesterday I looked at some weather system maps and wind patterns and posted that I thought the levels would be elevated Wednesday 20th and Thursday 21st but the weather system has slowed a bit so it may arrive a little slower and stay a little longer. The map in the link is consistent in what I believe the WIND PATTERNS will be but it is showing large levels of I-131 which have been measured to be very low. Either the reports of the iodine and cesium levels are inaccurate or the isotope concentration numbers that the NILU website put into their model are wrong. By Saturday it should be obvious what the reality is at the reactor site and the accuracy of the NILU data. I will stay on this one and I hope that TRL might double up on his readings for the next three days or so if any elevations above 0.3 microSv are seen. It will help assess the current condition at the reactors and to more accurately asses the risk to Tokyo at T plus 5 weeks from the initial incident at the plant.

Antonio  They have this disclaimer on their site: "ATTENTION: These products are highly uncertain based on limited information for the source terms. Please use with caution and understand that the values are likely to change once we obtain more info...See more 

Frank Sanns  I believe the IAEA and all other data to date that says all is very low. This weather pattern will be the confirmation as it will be the least favorable since the accident. The numbers should stay under 0.3 microsieverts but will be a good data point for sure.